In the Electoral Crystal Ball

I despise what polls have done to our national discourse. Just as we now discuss the box office gross of new movies as much as we discuss the movies themselves, so too do we spend each election cycle following polls, talking about polls as much as or more than issues of policy. Our elections have become all about the horse race itself.

In particular I believe news organizations should not conduct presidential polls. It's manufactured news, not real reporting, and in the end reveals nothing. It's just plain bad journalism (but what else is new).

Having said all that, though, I must admit this year I've become a poll junkie. I never thought it would happen, just as I never thought I would be happy watching poker on TV and just as I never though I would see the Red Sox celebrating on the field at Yankee Stadium. But we're living in surreal times.

Because I was once a political reporter in the Bronx, I'm intimately familiar will all the trench tactics of electoral politics--ballot challenges, walking around money, buses rolling up to the retirement homes, phone banks jammed, lists of phony felons circulated to polling sites by state officials. And in the frantic scrapping of that world, polls are crucial. Polls are the tactician's instant market research, the information used to quickly set and reset strategy, a way to identify which old people need to be rolled out and which need to be kept from rolling.

I've been looking at the numbers and trends of various polls in battleground states(forget the nationwides, we don't elect our presidents that way) thanks to RealClearPolitics.com--a great site that culls polling information from a dozen sources..

As a Kerry man here's what I see today:

Oregon and Washington are in the bag for Kerry. In Oregon Kerry's been ahead in 8 of the 9 polls conducted over the past four weeks. 50 percent of Oregonians polled by Mason-Dixon last week said the country was on the wrong track. And the state has been solidly Democratic in the last 4 presidential campaigns. Meanwhile, in Washington, Bush hasn't led in a single poll listed on RealClear since February. The most recent set of results--from Strategic Vision, a partisan Republican pollster--has Kerry +5. Washington is in the bag.

New Jersey is unlikely to be a problem. Over the last two months 22 polls have been reported and Kerry has led in all but three polls, and two of those showed a tie. Kerry led in three Strategic Vision polls during that time. Furthermore of the last five polls in the state all but one give Kerry a lead. The one, from Farleigh Dickenson, rates it a tie but of the five, the FDU poll is the one with the highest margin of error.

Michigan similarly no longer concerns me. Although a poll reported yesterday from the Detroit News gave Bush a 4 point bulge, the poll appears anomalous. Another poll reported today shows Kerry +7--a number more in line with the other polls in the state. Strategic Vision even has Kerry leading by 8 points. Meanwhile, since June, Bush has only been ahead in two polls. I need to see another poll with similar result to back up the +4 Bush number. In the meantime 55% of Michigan residents think jobs are hard to find in their communities (although more folks approved of the president's performance than disapproved) My guess is that MI is a strong Kerry state.

Minnesota looks to be going Kerry, but it's close. Kerry led every poll this month but one which showed him tied. Since August 12 polls have showed Kerry with a lead while 4 have shown a tie and one, taken around Sept. 11, showed Bush with a lead. It could be a squeaker here but I figure if Kerry if leading in the polls in a state that went for Dukakis he's probably going to win.

Now we get on to the interesting ones. My guess is that Pennsylvania is going Kerry. He's had a lead in all but 9 of the last 10 polls and the only Bush lead came from a Republican pollster and that was only a 1 pointer. This is one of the states where left leaning groups have been relentlessly registering new voters. It will be interesting to see if that tactic has an impact on solidifying this state for the Dems.

Ohio is fascinating. No Republican has won the White House without it. If George Bush is going to win this time he may well have to find a way around Ohio. The polling has steadily bounced back and forth. In 12 polls this month Kerry led in 7, Bush led in 4, and one showed a tie. You'd have to say the trend is with Kerry, since Bush led here throughout all the September polls and now Kerry holds a slim lead. But it looks like a nail-biter. This is the state that must concern Bushies most. If Kerry wins Ohio he has a chance to cobble together a winning night on the 2nd. Again, Dems claim to have registered thousands of new voters here. We'll see if it's true and if it matters.

Wisconsin and Iowa are big problems for Kerry. Unless he wins all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida he will need to win at least one of WI or IA. My guess is that if Kerry loses this election it will be as a result of these two states. In Iowa Kerry hasn't had a polling lead since two polls at the beginning of the month. According to Mason-Dixon more people in Iowa feel the country is on the right track than on the wrong track. And more Iowans think jobs are generally available than not. The last two polls out of the state each show a 6 point lead for Bush. Kerry is in big trouble in Iowa. This is another state where Dems claim to have been busy with new registrations. Kerry can't win here unless that strategy works.

Wisconsin looks for the moment to be more in play than Iowa. Kerry and Bush each have 4 poll victories this month and share two ties. Although the trend this week seems to be going Bush, over the month it's been more Kerry who had a lot of ground to make up here. Kerry put himself in a hole with the cheeseheads when he called Lambeau Field, Lambert Field. (Kerry should just stop talking sports on the campaign trail.) After that gaffe the President had a 14% lead in the state at the end of September. Now it's neck and neck. No data yet on new voter registrations in the state. This is a Dukakis/Gore state with two Democratic Senators and it just elected its first Democratic Governor in 16 years. This is a state that Kerry needs to find a way to win.

New Mexico and New Hampshire have interesting electorates that are very closely split between the left and the right and full of unaffiliated voters. These are states where voter registration drives that have favored Democrats have been held. In New Hampshire the polls this month have been all over the place. Just when one shows a 7 point lead for Kerry another comes along showing a 5 point lead for Bush. This state will be telling on election night. It hasn't been wrong in it's Presidential pick since it chose Ford over Carter in '76. I can't say which way it's going to go. This is a true toss up, a small state with a split electorate. Right now the numbers favor Kerry but ever so slightly. Anything can happen here.

New Mexico has similarly been up and down with four non partisan polls this month split evenly between the candidates. This state was decided by a few hundred votes in 2000 and it could be just as tight again. The race here has favored Kerry throughout much of the year but the most recent trend shows a Bush resurgence. This is another state where the Dems appear to have had success with newly registered voters. If the registration strategy is working it will show up here.

And finally there is Florida, land of hanging chads and non-felon felons. It would seem to be a Bush state, but the margin here once again appears razor thin. In fact, the race is closer here that it is in either Wisconsin or Iowa. Still Bush has been ahead in 8 of 13 polls this month. The polls reported this week were +1 Kerry, +3 Bush, +1 Kerry, +1 Bush. Republicans have registered just as many new voters as Democrats in the state. We could be up late recounting Florida again.

If I had to guess right now I'd say Bush wins by 10 electoral votes, 273-263. That makes Wisconsin, with 10 votes, the difference maker. Kerry needs either Wisconsin or a combination of Iowa and New Mexico (Iowa + New Hampshire would only give him a tie sending the election to the House) if he wants to win. He may need to kick a winning field goal for the Packer to pull this election off.